Russia’s SVR Takes Charge of Wagner’s African Influence Operations
Following the demise of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner Group, Russia has shifted its strategy in Africa, transferring control of the group’s influence operations to the foreign intelligence service, the SVR. This major development is detailed in an extensive investigation by an international consortium of media outlets.
The Legacy of the Wagner Group in Africa
The Wagner Group, previously recognized as Moscow’s most notorious mercenary outfit, has been heavily scrutinized by human rights organizations due to its violent methods. The group has maintained a vast presence in various African nations, including Libya and Mali. Their operatives have teamed up with national forces while simultaneously conducting disinformation campaigns and destabilizing political environments.
Restructuring Post-Prigozhin
Following Prigozhin’s tragic death in a plane crash after a brief insurrection against the Kremlin, the Russian Defense Ministry restructured Wagner’s operations into a new organization termed the Africa Corps. However, investigative findings reveal that the SVR has assumed control over the group’s political maneuvers and information warfare.
SVR’s New Role
The new investigation — which includes contributions from Forbidden Stories, All Eyes On Wagner, and other notable outlets — indicates that the SVR is now charged with advancing Russian political and economic agendas across Africa while disseminating propaganda and undermining rival influences.
Intelligence and Influence Operations
Nearly 100 consultants are reportedly engaged in the SVR’s influence operations, internally referred to as Africa Politology or “The Company.” Evidence suggests that operations will expand between 2024 and 2025, targeting countries such as Angola, Argentina, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, and others.
Revelations from Internal Documents
A treasure trove of over 1,400 pages of internal documents, provided anonymously to The Continent, triggered this investigation. These documents, verified as genuine, included strategic plans, biographies, and operational updates detailing disinformation tactics executed from January to November 2024.
Strategic Gains for Russia
The SVR’s new influence strategy encompasses intelligence gathering and establishing political affiliations. A prime example is in Mali, where the agency collected intelligence on French and American military strategies in the Sahel. The SVR has also lent diplomatic support in the creation of a new military bloc that includes Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Guinea.
A Shift in Alliances
In the wake of military coups in these countries, there has been a clear distancing from former colonial powers, particularly France, and a concurrent strengthening of ties with Moscow. The formation of the Alliance of Sahel States marks a crucial political success for Russia, signaling a shift in regional power dynamics.
Financial Dimensions of the Operations
Investigators uncovered a network of businesses purportedly used by the SVR to funnel funds to Africa Politology, estimating the budget for influence operations at approximately $7.3 million between January and October 2024.
Challenges Ahead
Despite these expansive efforts, tangible economic benefits for Russia remain limited. Although numerous memorandums of understanding have been inked across Africa, many have yet to materialize into firm business deals. The strategy seems to be focused on politically unstable and vulnerable nations in the Sahel, with Russia adopting a long-term approach to its investments.
Conclusion
The transition of influencing operations from the Wagner Group to the SVR illustrates a significant shift in Russian strategy in Africa, with implications that could alter the geopolitical landscape of the continent for years to come.
