Understanding Food Security in North Africa: Challenges and Responses

Food security in North Africa is predominantly influenced by structural factors that will shape the region’s trajectory for years to come. Rapid demographic growth, global shifts in dietary preferences, and escalating climate-related pressures are not transient issues—they represent enduring challenges. The United Nations categorizes the Mediterranean region as a climate change “hot spot”, where increased temperatures, limited water resources, and extreme weather events further destabilize already vulnerable agricultural systems. In nations such as Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria, these conditions intensify the challenges of diminishing arable land per capita and rising demand for wheat-based products amidst growing urbanization. This disconnect between domestic agricultural capacity and consumption patterns culminates in a structural mismatch that poses significant threats to food security in the region over the medium term.

US Funding Cuts and Their Implications

Amidst these challenges, the political climate in 2026 has brought about noteworthy changes, particularly regarding international development assistance. The Trump II administration’s decision to cut development and humanitarian aid has raised alarms. Although these cuts have not yet caused immediate spikes in cereal prices, they pose long-term risks to food security, especially in North African economies—where fiscal constraints and heavy reliance on imports exacerbate vulnerability. Food security relies on the resilience of food systems, heavily dependent on multilateral funding, development partnerships, agricultural research, and crisis-response capacity. The reshaping of this support system could limit governmental maneuverability amid future disruptions.

In areas like Sudan, Mauritania, and Libya—experiencing conflict and influxes of refugees—the effects of U.S. cuts become glaringly evident through reduced food rations and cash transfers. Conversely, countries such as Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt witness subtler consequences, like the suspension of USAID-funded rural resilience programs, that aim to bolster agricultural capabilities and adapt to climate challenges. The closing of programs like Food for Progress in Tunisia, which provided $76.5 million to support crop value-chain upgrades, further diminishes growth opportunities. The effect of these reductions compounds issues that were already fragile; thus, the loss of support can be viewed as a potential risk multiplier exacerbating existing vulnerabilities.

The European Union’s Role: Ambitions vs. Fragmentation

The European Union has signaled its commitment to the Southern Neighborhood through initiatives like the New Pact for the Mediterranean. This strategy frames food insecurity as a complex issue intertwined with energy, water, trade, climate adaptation, and migration governance. However, competing interests within member states may limit its effectiveness. Since the onset of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, critical discussions have shifted toward defense, energy security, and fiscal strategies, overshadowing vital Mediterranean policies.

Moreover, the EU’s Global Gateway initiative, which emphasizes energy interconnections and climate resilience, faces challenges. Its reliance on blending financial models and private-sector investments may prove insufficient during crises requiring immediate state-led intervention. Unlike direct public investments, these private models cannot easily replace critical services in times of need.

Italy’s Mattei Plan: A Step Forward?

The Mattei Plan, spearheaded by Italy and supported by the TERRA Initiative, promises to mobilize €109 million for bolstering climate-resilient agricultural value chains. This initiative positions Italy as a diplomatic mediator between Europe and Africa, particularly enhancing crop production and irrigation in Algeria. Although efforts like these can foster beneficial partnerships and improve regional agricultural productivity, their scale may not sufficiently alter the landscape of food security in the short term.

Increasing African Agency and Regional Collaboration

African institutions are increasingly emphasizing the need for sovereignty and regional integration in addressing food security challenges. The African Union’s latest agri-food strategies aim to mitigate fragmentation through the operationalization of the African Continental Free Trade Area. In North Africa, enhancing trade among African nations could offer complementary benefits, particularly in products like pulses or livestock. However, trade flows currently face logistical and price competitiveness barriers, inhibiting their ability to replace substantial imports from external sources.

Moving Forward: Conditional Pathways, Not Guarantees

In summary, food security in North Africa will hinge on the interplay of structural import reliance, fiscal resilience, domestic productivity, and external support. Urbanization, demographics, and climate change will continue to exert foundational pressures. The recent reduction in U.S. support underscores the fragility of existing structures; it can reshape policy landscapes significantly.

Addressing these challenges necessitates enhanced risk management mechanisms, investment in productivity, and improved collaboration between European, African, and global partners to ensure resilience in the coming years.