Upcoming African Union Session on Guinea-Bissau: Key Insights and Expectations
On March 5, the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is set to convene to discuss the ongoing political crisis in Guinea-Bissau. This session will focus on assessing the country’s political landscape and reviewing the actions taken to restore constitutional order.
Agenda and Key Speakers
The meeting will be initiated by an opening statement from the PSC Chairperson for March, Mahlaba Ali Mamba, who serves as the Permanent Representative of Eswatini to the AU. Following this, Bankole Adeoye, the Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace, and Security (PAPS), will address the council. There is also potential for the representative of Sierra Leone, acting as Chair of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), to provide insights.
Background and Recent Developments
The last significant discourse on Guinea-Bissau took place during the PSC’s 1315th session on November 28, 2025. This meeting followed a military coup that disrupted the electoral process initiated on November 23, which had been praised for its transparency by observers from both AU and ECOWAS. In its findings, the PSC classified the military takeover as unconstitutional, leading to Guinea-Bissau’s suspension from AU activities.
Echoing the PSC’s stance, ECOWAS, during an extraordinary session on November 27, 2025, called for the coup leaders to ensure a swift declaration of election results by the National Electoral Commission. To facilitate this, a high-level mediation mission was mandated to engage with military authorities in Guinea-Bissau.
Goals of the Upcoming Session
The forthcoming session will not only evaluate the progress made toward restoring constitutional order but also assess the implementation of prior PSC decisions. ECOWAS is expected to brief the PSC on its diplomatic efforts with the transitional government.
This meeting presents an opportunity to discuss a more unified approach between the PSC and ECOWAS in engaging the military leadership. Key discussions will include compliance with Article 25(4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG), which prohibits those responsible for unconstitutional changes from contesting future elections, while also upholding commitments made in the transitional charter.
Challenges and Transitional Politics
Initially, both the PSC and ECOWAS demanded the conclusion of the disrupted November elections instead of pursuing interim arrangements. However, the military leaders entrenched their position by instating General Horta N’Tam as interim president for a one-year term, with plans for elections set for December 6, 2026. Although the transitional charter restricts N’Tam and his prime minister from standing in these elections, skepticism remains about adherence to this commitment.
A recent analysis highlighted that both ^ECOWAS and the AU failed to act upon prior decisions, shifting from a focus on electoral results to accommodating a shorter transition period. This change came during the mid-December 2025 ECOWAS meeting, where they opted for an inclusive government leading to new elections, although they rebuffed the military’s proposed one-year transition.
Future Directions: Coordination and Compliance
The anticipated discussion will center around securing a shorter transition period and ensuring compliance with Article 25(4) of ACDEG regarding military participation in elections. Reinforcing coordination efforts between the AU and ECOWAS is essential to effectively influence military authorities and facilitate a rapid return to constitutional governance.
Expected Outcomes
The PSC is likely to issue a communiqué acknowledging recent positive measures taken by Guinea-Bissau’s transitional authorities, such as releasing opposition figures. It may reiterate the call for a shorter transitional period under an inclusive government and emphasize the urgency for credible elections.
Additionally, the PSC may reinforce its earlier requests for AU Commission support to assist Guinea-Bissau in returning to constitutional order through national dialogue and necessary political reforms. The pressing need for compliance with Article 25(4) will also be reiterated, along with the establishment of a monitoring mechanism on the situation in Guinea-Bissau.
For ongoing updates and insights on this evolving situation, follow this link for more details.
