The Economic Ripples of Global Conflicts: Africa’s Struggles with Rising Fuel Prices

Lagos taxi driver Adegbola Isaac experienced the harsh realities of rising fuel costs firsthand last weekend. Visiting a gas station twice, he witnessed the price surge to 1350 naira (NZ$1.69) per liter, marking a staggering 35% increase since the onset of the Iran war on February 28, following US-Israeli strikes. This inflation has dramatically impacted his daily earnings, a sentiment echoed by many across Africa grappling with similar challenges.

“It is hitting hard,” Isaac shared with The Associated Press, reflecting the growing concern among millions who are feeling the weight of global conflicts that seem distant yet have immediate repercussions.

Global Conflicts Impacting Local Economies

As the conflict in the Middle East disrupts critical supply chains, nations like Nigeria face escalating fuel costs due to a largely closed Strait of Hormuz. This situation exacerbates existing hardships for many, especially those in the world’s poorest households, aggravating an already fragile economic landscape.

Global crises have repeatedly targeted Africa, a continent that remains vulnerable to external pressures. Following challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the situation has deteriorated further with the current Middle East conflict disrupting critical resources such as fuel and fertilizer.

African nations, primarily net importers of refined oil, are witnessing swift repercussions as retail fuel prices climb. This hike in costs affects not just transportation but a myriad of goods and services vital for everyday life.

Widespread Effects Across the Continent

The United Nations labeled Africa as “the epicentre of overlapping global crises” in a 2025 report by UNCTAD. It noted that over 50% of Africa’s trade is with non-African nations. Countries like Kenya depend on the Middle East for all their fuel supplies, leading to disruptions that already affect 20% of retail outlets. Meanwhile, Uganda faces dwindling fuel stock expected to last only a few weeks.

South Africa also relies heavily on oil imports, primarily from Saudi Arabia, while Nigeria, despite being Africa’s largest oil producer, lacks sufficient local refining capabilities, leading to a dependency on refined products from Europe.

Adapting to New Economic Realities

In light of soaring prices, Zimbabwe’s health sector has seen protests advocating for wage increases amidst a rising cost of living. The government plans to increase fuel blending ratios with ethanol, a measure fraught with potential risks to vehicle performance and environmental standards.

“I now avoid going into town during peak hours because the fares are too high,” shared Washington Nyakarize, an informal trader in Harare. Such decisions reflect how economic strains force individuals to adapt their daily routines, impacting businesses and livelihoods across various sectors.

Industries in South Africa reliant on diesel are stockpiling fuel but receive some reassurance from the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR), which confirmed untapped strategic reserves available to manage the crisis.

Beyond Fuel: Agricultural Challenges Ahead

The UNCTAD warns that fertilizer access across Africa will likely face significant disruptions due to ongoing conflicts, affecting countries already dealing with instability. For instance, Kenya’s flower industry notes losses of up to US$1.4 million (NZ$2.4 million) weekly due to reduced demand and shipping complications since the outbreak of the Iran war, highlighting the broader agricultural repercussions of these global crises.

Future Predictions Amid Ongoing Tensions

Experts predict unpredictable challenges ahead if the conflict continues. “If the conflict persists for another month or two, we’re entering uncharted territory,” warned Zainab Usman, a senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy.

Governments Seek Alternatives

In response to the global oil squeeze, several African governments are exploring alternative supply routes. Recent reports indicate that nations like South Africa, Kenya, and Ghana are negotiating fuel contracts with Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery. The refinery has started to fulfill orders for refined petroleum products to multiple African countries, marking a significant step as it reaches full operational capacity.

Energy experts believe that Dangote’s ability to meet the rising demand will hinge on maintaining a steady crude oil supply. “As long as there is a steady supply of crude oil, the refinery has the capacity to meet some of the continent’s needs,” stated Olufola Wusu, an oil and gas expert based in Lagos.