Africa’s Trade Outlook: Navigating Risks Amid Growth
Yaoundé – Following a remarkable performance in 2025, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has highlighted new challenges threatening Africa’s trade momentum, primarily linked to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. This situation poses significant risks to developing economies like Tanzania, affecting oil prices, travel opportunities, and food security.
Strong Recovery in 2025
During the WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference in Cameroon, chief economist Robert Staiger presented an optimistic review of Africa’s trade performance in 2025. After years of stagnation, Africa’s exports of goods soared by 10.3 percent in volume, while imports increased by 8.7 percent. This impressive rebound stemmed from heightened global demand for various commodities, including cocoa, coffee, gold, fertilizers, and ores.
Growth in Services Trade
In addition to goods, the services sector also showed remarkable growth. Staiger noted that Africa’s volume of services exports grew by 5.9 percent, making it the second-fastest-growing region globally, just after Asia. The tourism sector, a crucial component of Africa’s services trade, experienced a substantial uplift, with travel receipts up by 16 percent.
Weaker Prospects for 2026 and Beyond
Despite these encouraging developments, the outlook for 2026 and 2027 appears less optimistic. The WTO projects that Africa’s merchandise export volumes will grow by 1.2 percent in 2026 and rebound slightly to 2.2 percent in 2027. Additionally, the anticipated slowdown in services exports follows the post-pandemic travel boom.
Conflict Risks Impacting Trade
Staiger underscored the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as the leading downside risk for Africa’s trade. The multifaceted effects of this crisis could disrupt Africa’s economic recovery in three main areas:
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Oil Prices: For oil-exporting nations, rising energy prices could bolster export revenues. However, this surge in prices could negatively impact non-oil-exporting countries, slowing economic activity across the continent.
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Tourism and Travel: Prolonged conflict may severely constrain growth in Africa’s services trade, potentially dropping forecasts from 3.7 percent to just 1.7 percent in 2026. The Middle East’s role as a vital aviation hub is central to these concerns.
- Agriculture and Food Security: The conflict has affected crucial shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-third of the world’s fertilizer supplies move, thereby increasing farming costs and food security pressures across Africa.
Evolving Trade Patterns Amid Global Uncertainties
In spite of these challenges, African trade dynamics are shifting against a backdrop of global uncertainties. Staiger observed that trade volumes were largely unaffected by new tariffs imposed in 2025. Instead, trade flows saw significant changes. Countries in Asia that faced barriers to markets in North America redirected their supplies to fast-growing emerging markets like Africa.
Surge in Exports to Africa
Particularly noteworthy is the 25.8 percent surge in exports from China to Africa, marking a rise in China’s share of African imports to nearly 25 percent. This shift contrasts sharply with a decline in the European Union’s market share during the same time. Furthermore, Africa also increased its exports to the United Arab Emirates and India, driven primarily by heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Technology and Intra-African Trade
The ongoing global artificial intelligence boom is another factor influencing Africa’s trade outlook, although the advantages remain unevenly distributed. Many AI-related goods are exempt from new tariffs, helping sustain demand for African raw materials and ores. Despite this, Staiger cautioned that Africa captures less than 0.5 percent of global venture capital in AI.
Efforts to strengthen intra-African trade continue but remain limited. In 2024, intra-African trade accounted for 16.8 percent of the continent’s exports and 13.6 percent of its imports.
Preparing for the Future
For nations like Tanzania, the pressing task is to shield against global volatility while strategizing for long-term gains amid a rapidly evolving trade landscape. As Africa confronts both opportunities and challenges, staying agile will be key to sustaining growth in an interconnected world.
For further insights on trade in Africa, visit World Trade Organization and explore Africa’s Economic Outlook.
